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11 December 2009

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Peter Dale Scott

In McAdams' review of James Douglass's JFK and the Unspeakable. he summarizes John Prados’ report of a newly released White House tape of August 1963 discussing Vietnam (http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB302/index.htm): “According to John Prados, a historian of the Vietnam war, `President Kennedy’s emphasis indicated his determination to fight the war, not abandon it.’”

McAdams accurately quotes from Prados’s interesting commentary, which is worth reading by all of us. But I have already written to Prados to question the assumption he makes (and is made in McAdams' review): namely, that what Kennedy said in August about the purpose of withdrawing troops from Vietnam reveals what he must have been thinking when, in NSAM 263 of October 11, 1963), he authorized an initial withdrawal of 1000 troops by the end of 1963.

Indeed Prados's analysis of the August discussion, if correct, must be taken as evidence that JFK's purpose for a troop withdrawal had changed between August, when it was discussed as what Prados calls a mechanism "to influence the Diem government," and October, when it was demonstrably authorized to be implemented without advising or alerting the Diem government.

I tried yesterday to point this out tactfully to Prados, a scholar whom I respect, in the following email (I have not yet heard back from him):

Dear John Prados,

I read with interest your account of the newly released audio recordings of White House discussions on Vietnam in August 1963 (http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB302/index.htm). However I am not convinced that what Kennedy said about withdrawal in August can tell us what he had in mind when authorizing NSAM 263 in October. Such an extrapolation would assume that his thinking had not changed through those seven tumultuous weeks.

It seems to me that you do make this extrapolation in the following paragraphs

Finally, the new Kennedy tapes further illuminate the debate as to whether John F. Kennedy intended to withdraw the United States from the Vietnam war. The record of the August meetings shows President Kennedy's acute awareness of the political capital he would lose in Congress if the Vietnam war were lost (Item 12). In the meetings Kennedy and his advisers use the term "withdrawal" mostly to signify termination or suspension of aid to the Diem government. They explicitly use "evacuation" in conversations about getting Americans out of South Vietnam in the context of a coup situation, and a plan for such an evacuation was discussed and refined during this period. Kennedy and his advisers were reaching for mechanisms to influence the Diem government, and they would, as noted, terminate aid to some of Diem's troops.

South Vietnamese officials, specifically including Nhu, made public statements at this time that hinted at a future demand for the Americans to leave Vietnam. The minor withdrawal that President Kennedy approved and which Secretary McNamara ordered in October 1963 should be seen in this context: it was a measure that simultaneously suggested that Washington could be responsive to demands by the Diem government, simplified U.S. problems in case an evacuation actually needed to be carried out, and put Diem further on notice that the United States had the power to leave him in the lurch.

(http://www.gwu.edu/~nsarchiv/NSAEBB/NSAEBB302/index.htm)

And I think you are demonstrably wrong in the last sentence, when you claim that

The minor withdrawal that President Kennedy approved and which Secretary McNamara ordered in October 1963 should be seen in this context: it was a measure that … put Diem further on notice that the United States had the power to leave him in the lurch.

It couldn’t have put Diem on notice, because NSAM 263 explicitly directed there be no formal announcement of the withdrawal; and indeed there was none until after Diem was dead. This directive of secrecy applied to the withdrawal alone, in explicit contrast (as Newman, Galbraith, and I have pointed out) to the Taylor-McNamara proposals for economic and financial sanctions, which were indeed publicized and indeed served as a message to Diem.

This is what I have to say on the his matter, in The War Conspiracy, pp. 290-91:

1) Kennedy did unambiguously order on October 5 1963 that 1000 U.S. troops be withdrawn from Vietnam by the end of December 1963. This was a decision, unlike the intention announced on October 2, as can be seen from a memo of the October 5 meeting:

The President also said that our decision to remove 1,000 U.S. advisors by December of this year should not be raised formally with Diem. Instead the action should be carried out routinely as part of our general posture of withdrawing people when they are no longer needed.

This language was repeated in National Security Action Memorandum (NSAM) 263 of October 11, 1963:

The President approved the military recommendations contained in section I B (1-3) of the [McNamara-Taylor] report, but directed that no formal announcement be made of the implementation of plans to withdraw 1,000 U.S. military personnel by the end of 1963.

The debate over the significance of this decision has not abated, but it has changed. The significance of the decision is still minimized by historians like Kai Bird, who now argue that it was no more than a temporary tactic to put pressure on Diem. There were indeed some advisers at the time who saw the threat of withdrawal as a means to pressure Diem. But in the McNamara-Taylor Report of October 2 and the ensuing NSAM 263 of October 11, the withdrawal plan was separated from the political program of economic and financial sanctions. As John Newman and James Galbraith have pointed out, the withdrawal decision was to be kept secret, while the other sanctions were to be publicized, showing clearly that “Kennedy did not want Diem or anyone else to interpret the withdrawal as part of any pressure tactic (other steps that were pressure tactics had also been approved).”

Howard Jones concludes that the withdrawal decision in NSAM 263 embodied a policy that changed with Johnson’s succession to the presidency:

As the presidential tapes show, McNamara urged President Kennedy as late as October 2, 1963, to pursue the withdrawal plan as “a way to get out of Vietnam.” Kennedy’s assassination brought the process to a halt.

I would be interested in your reaction to these comments.

Peter

LanaCarson

Thank you, Peter. I was about to not even read more of the book b/c of this review. A Harvard graduate and professor at Marquette is no small thing! But your comments are at least a counterpoint so I guess with my smaller brain I will still read more and decide for myself. I will say I find Douglass irritating as an author and narrator but that doesn't mean his book is all wrong.

Jon Harrison

Scott's points are well taken. I don't think that Douglass's book has added much if anything new to our knowledge of either the assassination or Kennedy's Vietnam policy as it evolved in late '63. However, McAdams in his review falls into the same traps he accuses Douglass of getting caught in: selectivity, failure to consider context, and prejudgement based on ideology.

Whether Kennedy would have withdrawn from Vietnam after 1964 we can never know. There is a much better case for it than McAdams claims, and Scott's comment highlights some of the best evidence. As to the assassination, an objective look at the evidence really leaves one in no doubt that a conspiracy was involved, and that it was domestic in origin. There is undoubtedly an enormous amount of pro-conspiracy literature that is pure bunkum. This was and is the inevitable result of "respectable" elements in media and government failing to pursue the crime properly; as a result all sorts of people rush in to fill the void. But real scholarship on the assassination does exist, and it has successfully demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that Oswald, or at least Oswald acting alone, was NOT responsible for Kennedy's death. It has further demonstrated that the scope of activity both before and after the event was far too extensive and sophisticated to have been the work of a lone nut -- or a few lone nuts acting in concert. On the evidence, a powerful conspiracy -- which had to include elements within the US government -- was involved.

Perhaps McAdams has not taken the time to review the evidence in detail. Alternatively, he may simply be predisposed, psychologically, to dismiss the idea that a portion of the American government would kill the legitimate, elected leader of the country. For just as there are people who must see a conspiracy behind every tragedy, there are those who cannot admit that America is in some respects no different from any other polity in human history.

Gabe

Thanks for the review.
Ugh, what a bore of a book.

William Murphy

Senator Edward Kennedy voted for the Tonkin resolution, almost a declaration of war against North Vietnam, less than a year after the assassination of JFK. Theodore Sorensen, legal counsel to JFK, wrote in KENNEDY (1965) that JFK intended to stay in Vietnam because there was no alternative. Sorensen is mentioned many times by Douglass, but that fact is not mentioned.

In A THOUSAND DAYS, Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., longtime political adviser to JFK, does not mention any plan by JFK to withdraw even though he does not state explicitly that JFK intended to stay in Vietnam. Douglass claims that Robert McNamara supported JFK's plan to withdraw, but McNamara supported LBJ's escalation of the war in 1965, and in one of his books he states that it was only in December 1965 that he first mentioned to LBJ that the war could not be won.

Robert Kennedy entered the Senate in 1965, and neither he nor Edward Kennedy made any objections to LBJ's escalation of the war.

That James Douglass wrote a silly book does not bother me. What does bother me is that no one at Orbis Books spent about eight hours in a good public library to find all of the above facts and neither did the Jesuit (I have forgotten his name) who wrote an uncritical review in America magazine.

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